The battle over net neutrality finally seems to be piercing the American consciousness (with the stagmires overseas and the economic and civil liberties issues on the homefront, it's got some stiff competition), largely thanks to the folks over at SaveTheInternet.com and like-minded members of the MSM and blogosphere.
What's interesting is that this isn't (necessarily) a partisan issue; with liberals and libertarians joining hands across the aisle to fight for neutrality, it's shaping up to be more of a fight between consumer and media and pro-free-speech interests on the one hand, and telecom and anti-free-speech interests on the other. (If you have any doubt about this, check out the sponsor organizations for SaveTheInternet.com vs. the sponsor organizations for astroturf telecom lobby site HandsOffTheInternet.com.)
Anyway, tomorrow's a red-letter day: a Congressional committee vote on the Communications Opportunity, Promotion and Enhancement Act, or COPE Act, which, as it is currently written, doesn't give the FCC much power to regulate or police incursions against net neutrality.
Things are not expected to go well, based on the earlier subcommittee vote. Yet, even if net neutrality supporters somehow win this battle, I fear they will lose the war in the long term. I've recently taken part in some closed-door discussions between high-level representatives of telcos, current and former regulators, spectrum-savvy academics, and consumer advocates. Without giving away specific details, I can tell you that I was shocked at the degree to which a "tiered internet" (read: non-neutral network) was considered the foregone conclusion of our deliberations, by virtually all parties.
The rhetoric goes something like this: in the consumers' and publishers' perfect world, the Internet would continue to be neutral (assuming it already is, which is problematic); in the telcos' perfect world, the Internet would be a totally private highway, and both users and publishers would have to pay fees for every bit exchanged. Therefore, the logic goes, the best compromise would be a tiered Internet, with a fee-based "fast lane" and an old fashioned, lower-speed neutral "slow lane."
Don't believe a word of it. As soon as service providers segregate revenue-generating bits from non-revenue-generating bits, the latter tier will rapidly disintegrate to the level of non-functionality. The higher tier will thrive on new standards and technologies, which will be exclusively supported by new software (IE10, for example, would probably only support the "fast lane" traffic), and the whole process would snowball. Before you could say "Tom Paine," the Internet we've come to know and love for the last decade (or more, in some cases) will go bye-bye, to be replaced by the world's largest and most expensive taxpayer-subsidized TV and telephony infrastructure. Goodbye blogosphere, goodbye grassroots politics, goodbye remix culture. The clock strikes midnight, and we all turn back into a bunch of couch pumpkins with remote controls in our hands but no real control to speak of.
UPDATE: The Markey amendment for stronger regulatory oversight died in committee today. Super-bummer. But, as Kos points out, there's still the Senate. Keep your fingers crossed, and keep your Senator on speed-dial.